Marijuana

Now that the election is drawing near its final hours, many things hang in the balance, least of all the leader of the free world. Also numerous senate races, all of the representative races and many, many referendums. One such law that will be voted on is Arizona's proposed law that makes it legal to carry, sell, and use marijuana. Arizona allows for medical marijuana, but as was noted in the article I read, even getting that vote was tough. They only won by about 4000 votes and many marijuana advocates are worried that this vote will be even closer. While there is a large grassroots (no pun intended) effort in the state to get out information about weed and to try to convince people to vote yes for legalization, there is also a large group of businesses and community leaders who oppose this legalization. The claim that it will impede workers abilities and attitudes, while the advocates completely ignore the issue of the known lethargy that often accompanies marijuana. Either way, this vote will have consequences for the state, least of all in terms of increased tax revenue. This issue will probably drive numerous younger people to the polls, because they have a personal stake in this law.

Joe Engels

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/04/arizona-marijuana-campaign-says-prop-205-race-could-decided-couple-thousand-votes/93297986/

Last Ditch Election Mailers

In Arizona, a surprise battleground state, the Republicans are throwing every thing they have at the voters. A classic deep red state, if AZ goes blue it could signal a national change. This week voters were either encouraged, or outraged by the mailing of "voter report cards". These cards showed a person's past voting history, the frequency of their voting, and the voting records of their closest neighbors. Some people were given an F grade and others an A. Some people were livid about this, calling it an invasion of privacy. This is not only a Republican trick though, Democrats also utilized this technique, but instead of grades, they gave out various levels of gold stars. While the grade has no actual effect, the social connotations of knowing which neighbors are involved and which ones are not has the potential to increase turnout. This type of social peer pressure could also have negative backlash. A person who received a mailer from the state Republican Party said she is leaving the party due to the "intimidation" from the mailer.  Another person, who was called and texted by a supposedly non-partisan group was then harassed by a volunteer of that organization for voting for Trump. The volunteer involved called her names and eventually sent a text message with the words," Trump is going down!" A spokesman for the organization said the volunteer acted correctly, except for the text message. A spokesman for the Republican party said the mailers were effective in increasing turnout in previous elections and that they expect to see the same results here. As the final week draws near, all candidates and parties are grasping at straws.


http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/27/arizona-republican-voter-report-card-mailer/92840150/

Joe Engels

Penzone verses Sheriff Joe

The democratic nominee for Maricopa County sheriff Paul Penzone is leading the incumbent Joe Arpaio by 15 points in a recent poll. The poll was conducted in light of recent federal charges brought up Arpaio in a racial-profiling case, and 15 points is a lot of points to be leading by. So this might be the year Sheriff Joe looses his prized seat he's held for the last 10000 years. There were some potential problems with the survey; maybe the pollers interviewed a disproportionate amount of Democratic voters, or maybe the pollers asked biased questions.  Ultimately, polls are polls: they're like the over/under for football games, where they tell a story on who might win, but don't too much until the game is actually played. However, 15 points is a wide margin of victory. This could be Sheriff Joe's last hoorah (I wonder what he'll do if he does lose the race...he'll probably have a late-life crisis and not know what to do with himself). 

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/20/poll-paul-penzone-leading-maricopa-county-sheriff-joe-arpaio-15-points/92427426/

--Andrew Moen

Arizona

Hillary Clinton has established a lead in the polls of Arizona. Taking the polls with a grain of salt, it is still a huge step in the alignment of future voters from Arizona. She is leading Donald Trump throughout Arizona, but especially with women and Hispanics after Trump's damaging rhetoric and racist remarks. While some Democrats were hoping to also upset John McCain in his senatorial race, now that seems like a slim chance. McCain, who has feuded with Donald since the beginning, has a solid 10 point lead over Ann Kirkpatrick and it probably will not change by election day. He has cut ties with Donald, and while that might hurt his standing among ultra-conservatives, it will only help him with the rest of the party that abhors Donald Trump. This race could have been a major swing for the Democrats who are hoping not only for a sweeping Clinton win, but also a sweep of the Senate. But McCain is not only hanging on, his support appears to be growing. He has a remarkable campaign machine that is led primarily by college and high school interns who devote their weekends to knocking on doors for the Senator. He also has full approval and use of RNC funds and staffers. This of course came after a strongly contested primary when he was challenged by a tea party conservative. Given the current state of politics in the state, I believe he will maintain his lead and keep his seat for his sixth term in the U.S. Senate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mccain-hangs-on-as-clinton-aims-at-winning-arizona/2016/10/24/786596b4-9702-11e6-bb29-bf2701dbe0a3_story.html

Joe Engels

Famous Democrats/Daugher Campaigning in AZ

Due to the closeness of the race in Arizona, Hillary might want a little extra endorsement if she plans on winning Arizona. That's why former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, first lady Michelle Obama, and Hillary's daughter Chelsea are all campaigning for her this week in various cities throughout Arizona. Traditionally a Republican-leaning state, the democrats believe they have an opportunity to win Arizona for the first time since her husband Bill won it in 1996, hence the campaigning. Ultimately, it will be interesting how the state of Arizona plays out. I don't know if their campaigning will make a difference; it definitely could if Bernie convinces all of his supporters to vote for Hillary (which I think a lot are. I don't know the numbers, but his public endorsement of her helps more than hurts). Bernie, Michelle, and Chelsea's endorsement definitely will help Hillary's popularity in the traditionally republican state, however will it be enough for the Hillary to win Arizona for the first time since 1996???

http://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/arizona-news/212008372-story

http://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/arizona-news/211961957-story

--Andrew Moen

Losing Ground

The name Donald Trump is quickly becoming an expletive with the Republican Party's moderate members. His name, his nature, and his actions are turning away loyal conservatives to either not vote, or vote for Hillary Clinton, the bane of all Republicans. This is evident throughout the country, but no more so than in Arizona. This historically red state has been carried by every Republican contender for president since Eisenhower. Except for once. In 1996 they voted for Slick Bill Clinton, and I believe that this year, Arizona will also go to Hillary Clinton. Now, with both candidates polling within one point of each other, it is starting to look as though Donald is losing his base. The state's conservatives, including the two sitting senators, John McCain and Jeff Flake, have criticized and attacked Donald Trump on his rhetoric and dangerous policies. While this itself may not dissuade voters, Donald has also neglected to campaign in Arizona, thinking that it was in the proverbial bag. Not so fast, Donald. You very well could be the person that scares Arizona back into the Clinton's fold. With Arizona only one in a slew of states that Donald Trump has ostracized in his bumbling attempt for the presidency there is one clear loser in this campaign and that is the Republican Party. From the RNC to the state organizations to local politicians, Donald Trump has spectacularly sabotaged the very party he claims to be representing. His poor character and bombastic attitude have brought attacks upon the Republicans in both the Senate and the House and he risks not only losing his bid for the presidency, but also contributing to the loss of Republican legislators that will undoubtedly take place come election day.


Joe Engels



http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-risk-losing-arizona-state-officials-say-n667281

McCain and GOP, Bye Donald

This week has been an even more tumultuous week in American politics, if that is even possible. The Trump Tape being released,  the debate between two children that took on a reality TV style feel, a large Clinton lead, and the distancing of the GOP. It is the last point that I think is the most telling. Many of the powerful and respected conservative and republican leaders of this country are deserting Donald Trump to meet his fate. They say it is because of the release of a tape that is truly awful, or that in the debates he has proven a lack of judgement and a bad temperament. One of these Republican lawmakers is Senator John McCain of Arizona. McCain has decided that due to the horrible nature of the tape released, that he and his campaign are leaving Donald Trump. This is important because McCain is in a contested race for his senate seat with Ann Kirkpatrick, a democrat. Earlier this week they met for their first and only debate and wouldn't you know it, Trump was a large part of their debate. McCain said that he no longer could support Trump due to his treatment of women, with Kirkpatrick attacking him on taking this long to leave the Trump Train. This is an important state for Trump to win and to lose an influential backer such as McCain could take away needed votes. Clearly the majority of conservative voters will not vote for Clinton, but McCain suggested writing in a candidate that is an actual conservative, not just a braggart. Another important thing to think about is that McCain, a highly influential member of the Senate and Republican Party, said these remarks, after the presidential debate. That means he was not convinced by Donald's excuses and rhetoric that poured forth during the debate..For Donald Trump, the release of this tape and the desertion of the only people who gave his candidacy any sort of legitimacy very well could derail his lunge for the presidency.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/11/5-key-moments-john-mccain-ann-kirkpatrick-debate/91860250/

Joe Engels