Last Ditch Election Mailers

In Arizona, a surprise battleground state, the Republicans are throwing every thing they have at the voters. A classic deep red state, if AZ goes blue it could signal a national change. This week voters were either encouraged, or outraged by the mailing of "voter report cards". These cards showed a person's past voting history, the frequency of their voting, and the voting records of their closest neighbors. Some people were given an F grade and others an A. Some people were livid about this, calling it an invasion of privacy. This is not only a Republican trick though, Democrats also utilized this technique, but instead of grades, they gave out various levels of gold stars. While the grade has no actual effect, the social connotations of knowing which neighbors are involved and which ones are not has the potential to increase turnout. This type of social peer pressure could also have negative backlash. A person who received a mailer from the state Republican Party said she is leaving the party due to the "intimidation" from the mailer.  Another person, who was called and texted by a supposedly non-partisan group was then harassed by a volunteer of that organization for voting for Trump. The volunteer involved called her names and eventually sent a text message with the words," Trump is going down!" A spokesman for the organization said the volunteer acted correctly, except for the text message. A spokesman for the Republican party said the mailers were effective in increasing turnout in previous elections and that they expect to see the same results here. As the final week draws near, all candidates and parties are grasping at straws.


http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/27/arizona-republican-voter-report-card-mailer/92840150/

Joe Engels

Penzone verses Sheriff Joe

The democratic nominee for Maricopa County sheriff Paul Penzone is leading the incumbent Joe Arpaio by 15 points in a recent poll. The poll was conducted in light of recent federal charges brought up Arpaio in a racial-profiling case, and 15 points is a lot of points to be leading by. So this might be the year Sheriff Joe looses his prized seat he's held for the last 10000 years. There were some potential problems with the survey; maybe the pollers interviewed a disproportionate amount of Democratic voters, or maybe the pollers asked biased questions.  Ultimately, polls are polls: they're like the over/under for football games, where they tell a story on who might win, but don't too much until the game is actually played. However, 15 points is a wide margin of victory. This could be Sheriff Joe's last hoorah (I wonder what he'll do if he does lose the race...he'll probably have a late-life crisis and not know what to do with himself). 

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/20/poll-paul-penzone-leading-maricopa-county-sheriff-joe-arpaio-15-points/92427426/

--Andrew Moen

Arizona

Hillary Clinton has established a lead in the polls of Arizona. Taking the polls with a grain of salt, it is still a huge step in the alignment of future voters from Arizona. She is leading Donald Trump throughout Arizona, but especially with women and Hispanics after Trump's damaging rhetoric and racist remarks. While some Democrats were hoping to also upset John McCain in his senatorial race, now that seems like a slim chance. McCain, who has feuded with Donald since the beginning, has a solid 10 point lead over Ann Kirkpatrick and it probably will not change by election day. He has cut ties with Donald, and while that might hurt his standing among ultra-conservatives, it will only help him with the rest of the party that abhors Donald Trump. This race could have been a major swing for the Democrats who are hoping not only for a sweeping Clinton win, but also a sweep of the Senate. But McCain is not only hanging on, his support appears to be growing. He has a remarkable campaign machine that is led primarily by college and high school interns who devote their weekends to knocking on doors for the Senator. He also has full approval and use of RNC funds and staffers. This of course came after a strongly contested primary when he was challenged by a tea party conservative. Given the current state of politics in the state, I believe he will maintain his lead and keep his seat for his sixth term in the U.S. Senate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mccain-hangs-on-as-clinton-aims-at-winning-arizona/2016/10/24/786596b4-9702-11e6-bb29-bf2701dbe0a3_story.html

Joe Engels

Famous Democrats/Daugher Campaigning in AZ

Due to the closeness of the race in Arizona, Hillary might want a little extra endorsement if she plans on winning Arizona. That's why former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, first lady Michelle Obama, and Hillary's daughter Chelsea are all campaigning for her this week in various cities throughout Arizona. Traditionally a Republican-leaning state, the democrats believe they have an opportunity to win Arizona for the first time since her husband Bill won it in 1996, hence the campaigning. Ultimately, it will be interesting how the state of Arizona plays out. I don't know if their campaigning will make a difference; it definitely could if Bernie convinces all of his supporters to vote for Hillary (which I think a lot are. I don't know the numbers, but his public endorsement of her helps more than hurts). Bernie, Michelle, and Chelsea's endorsement definitely will help Hillary's popularity in the traditionally republican state, however will it be enough for the Hillary to win Arizona for the first time since 1996???

http://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/arizona-news/212008372-story

http://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/arizona-news/211961957-story

--Andrew Moen

Losing Ground

The name Donald Trump is quickly becoming an expletive with the Republican Party's moderate members. His name, his nature, and his actions are turning away loyal conservatives to either not vote, or vote for Hillary Clinton, the bane of all Republicans. This is evident throughout the country, but no more so than in Arizona. This historically red state has been carried by every Republican contender for president since Eisenhower. Except for once. In 1996 they voted for Slick Bill Clinton, and I believe that this year, Arizona will also go to Hillary Clinton. Now, with both candidates polling within one point of each other, it is starting to look as though Donald is losing his base. The state's conservatives, including the two sitting senators, John McCain and Jeff Flake, have criticized and attacked Donald Trump on his rhetoric and dangerous policies. While this itself may not dissuade voters, Donald has also neglected to campaign in Arizona, thinking that it was in the proverbial bag. Not so fast, Donald. You very well could be the person that scares Arizona back into the Clinton's fold. With Arizona only one in a slew of states that Donald Trump has ostracized in his bumbling attempt for the presidency there is one clear loser in this campaign and that is the Republican Party. From the RNC to the state organizations to local politicians, Donald Trump has spectacularly sabotaged the very party he claims to be representing. His poor character and bombastic attitude have brought attacks upon the Republicans in both the Senate and the House and he risks not only losing his bid for the presidency, but also contributing to the loss of Republican legislators that will undoubtedly take place come election day.


Joe Engels



http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-risk-losing-arizona-state-officials-say-n667281

McCain and GOP, Bye Donald

This week has been an even more tumultuous week in American politics, if that is even possible. The Trump Tape being released,  the debate between two children that took on a reality TV style feel, a large Clinton lead, and the distancing of the GOP. It is the last point that I think is the most telling. Many of the powerful and respected conservative and republican leaders of this country are deserting Donald Trump to meet his fate. They say it is because of the release of a tape that is truly awful, or that in the debates he has proven a lack of judgement and a bad temperament. One of these Republican lawmakers is Senator John McCain of Arizona. McCain has decided that due to the horrible nature of the tape released, that he and his campaign are leaving Donald Trump. This is important because McCain is in a contested race for his senate seat with Ann Kirkpatrick, a democrat. Earlier this week they met for their first and only debate and wouldn't you know it, Trump was a large part of their debate. McCain said that he no longer could support Trump due to his treatment of women, with Kirkpatrick attacking him on taking this long to leave the Trump Train. This is an important state for Trump to win and to lose an influential backer such as McCain could take away needed votes. Clearly the majority of conservative voters will not vote for Clinton, but McCain suggested writing in a candidate that is an actual conservative, not just a braggart. Another important thing to think about is that McCain, a highly influential member of the Senate and Republican Party, said these remarks, after the presidential debate. That means he was not convinced by Donald's excuses and rhetoric that poured forth during the debate..For Donald Trump, the release of this tape and the desertion of the only people who gave his candidacy any sort of legitimacy very well could derail his lunge for the presidency.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/11/5-key-moments-john-mccain-ann-kirkpatrick-debate/91860250/

Joe Engels

Do we really need a wall??

Do we need a wall constructed on the Mexican-American border to block off illegal immigrants from crossing over to the United States? Trump says we do; however, according to recent research, far fewer Latin American Immigrants are trying to cross into the country, due to a multitude of reasons. The main reasons for lack-of-illegal immigration are the increase of overall border security during the last 15 years (people wanting to cross the border figure it's too risky, due to the stepped up border enforcement), smugglers charging higher prices to help smuggle people (also due to stepped up border enforcement), and fewer women in Mexico producing children (lowering the amount of people entering the workforce, which creates less incentive for workers to leave). Not that the issue of illegal immigration is solved by any means--people are still entering the country illegally through other means--but is it that big of an issue anymore where we need to build the Great Wall of Amurikka??

(I realize this may be biased, and it wasn't meant to be. I don't know how I could have written this without at least some bias, if all of the statistics point against building a wall).

--Andrew Moen

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/border-issues/2016/10/09/how-many-mexicans-actually-cross-border-illegally/91280026/

Voter Registration Deadline

The Arizona deadline for voter registration is coming up on October 10. I'm curious as to why states have voter registration laws; traditionally voter registration laws/voter ID laws have benefited the Republican Party, due to the lack of voter turnout. However, upon further research, most states are like Arizona in the fact a person has to have their registration in by a certain date (the actual date varies between state, generally anywhere from October 8-November 3), so I wonder if the enactment of these laws was a political move, or for more practical reasons like not having ridiculous registration lines at polling places.

Also, another interesting tidbit about this Arizona voter registration story is the fact October 10 is Columbus Day--which means no mail, and no mail means no mail-in voter registration. The Democrats in Arizona tried to change it, because no mail on the 10th means the deadline is actually the 8th, however I gotta hand it to the Republicans. To put the voter registration day on a holiday is genius; people who forgot to register or held it off to the last minute now won't be able to send in their registration, further helping the Republican cause (although some counties said they would also take registration on Tuesday the 11th). It's a bold strategy, let's see if it pays off for them.

-Andrew

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/politicalinsider/2016/09/30/arizona-voter-registration-deadline-remains-oct-10/91293046/

Nader & Gore or Johnson & Trump?

In 2000, Ralph Nader was the third party presidential underdog in a race dominated by George Bush and Al Gore. While he never had a serious chance of winning, he did have a habit of taking votes away from the Democratic Presidential Candidate, Al Gore. This is most frequently showcased by Florida, where he took enough votes away from the Democrats to hand the state to G.W, and with the state, the presidency. This type of phenomenon has a chance to repeat itself in Arizona this year. Gary Johnson is galvanizing support among disenfranchised conservatives and the Hispanic community. While he has no chance of actually winning, his efforts in AZ may be enough to derail The Donald's campaign. Arizona has gone Republican in 11 of the 12 last presidential elections but it very well could go Democratic again. With Hillary showcasing political experience and lenient immigration policies and Gary proposing to legalize marijuana and pull back government interference, Donald's blustering rhetoric is falling on deaf ears. If enough conservative voters vote for Johnson, that may just give Hillary the chance to pull ahead and capture Arizona's 11 electoral votes. If Hillary does take over this bastion of conservatism, she will have won more than just 11 votes. She would have a won a state with one of the largest increasing Hispanic populations who normally sympathize with Democrats. If she wins she will be able to start laying groundwork to ensure that Arizona stays within her party, which could deal a blow to the GOP. November cannot come fast enough.

http://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/09/election_2016_on_road_to_270_a.html

Joe Engels